Summary
This briefing looks at the main costs behind the purchase price of a garment bought in Asia by a European retailer: cotton, polyester, viscose, ocean freight, the euro–dollar rate and factory wages. For each one it covers what the market did, what that could mean for a supplier's cost, and when a price adjustment is justified.
Recent market moves give no basis for new fibre surcharges. Cotton futures barely moved in the month to 6 November, and paraxylene, the main raw material for polyester, fell 9.1% in the week to 4 November. Freight is far above a year ago but has stopped rising. The euro buys fewer dollars than a year ago, and minimum wages go up in Vietnam and Cambodia in January 2027.
Those last three can justify an adjustment, but only where a supplier shows an extra cost that is not already in the agreed price. Don't accept blanket surcharges. Ask for the benchmark, the purchase dates, the actual cost exposure and evidence that the increase is not already priced in.
Market data to 9 November 2026. Each figure has its own date, given in the text. Compare each price only with itself over time.
Cotton: little change over the month
ICE December cotton was 78.71 US cents per lb on 5 November, with March 2027 at 82.55 cents (USDA AMS Weekly Cotton Market Review, 6 November). On Trading Economics' continuous cotton series, prices fell 1.2% in the month to 6 November and were 24% above a year earlier. That series follows the front-month ICE contract but does not publish how it rolls from one contract to the next.
USDA's 7-market spot average, a different series, was 73.36 cents in the week to 5 November, against 61.43 a year earlier (+19%). The US harvest is ahead of normal, China's cotton imports fell 42.6% in September, and Brazil expects to ship about 3.4 million tonnes.
Cotton bought in recent months cost more than it did a year ago, so a supplier may be carrying some of that in stock. The market gives no support for a new increase over the past month.
For buyers: ask for the cotton or yarn purchase dates and prices, the cotton share of garment cost, and the cotton price already built into the current agreed price.
Polyester and viscose: feedstock down, fibre unconfirmed
In early November, January Brent futures fell below $100 a barrel for the first time since 22 September, to $94.62 (OPIS). Brent spot had averaged $116.8 in September (World Bank Pink Sheet). Paraxylene followed oil down: it fell 9.1% in the week to 4 November to $1,265 per tonne CFR China, a seven-week low (OPIS). China's polyester capacity reached 92.84 million tonnes a year in October, and plants were running below last year's rates.
We have no current price for polyester fibre or yarn. The latest evidence is from September, when fibre prices were rising on feedstock costs while textile demand was weak and margins were thin (ChemAnalyst). Cheaper feedstock may feed through to fibre prices, but we have no current fibre price to confirm it. We also found no current viscose price.
For buyers: ask for the fibre or yarn price, its source and the purchase date. Don't accept or reject a polyester or viscose claim on feedstock prices alone.
Ocean freight: high, but no longer rising
On Drewry's World Container Index, Shanghai–Rotterdam was $3,615 per 40ft container on 5 November, down 2% on the week. Shanghai–Genoa was stable at $4,166. On 6 November 2025 the same lanes cost $1,962 and $2,111, so rates are 84% and 97% higher than a year ago. Drewry expects Asia–Europe rates to stay stable next week and doubts carriers' mid-November increases will hold.
Drewry says about 60% of Asia–Europe capacity now uses the Suez Canal route, though it does not define how that share is measured. It warns that the return to Suez could make ships arrive in bunches and congest European ports.
These are spot rates. A supplier on contract rates, or shipping on FOB terms where you pay the freight, may have no extra freight cost at all.
For buyers: an adjustment needs the actual extra freight cost compared with the freight allowance already in the price. Ask for origin and destination, shipment dates, spot or contract rate, delivery terms, container fill and the freight cost per garment.
The euro: dollar invoices cost about 3.5% more
EUR/USD was about 1.115 on 6 November 2026, against 1.1545 on 6 November 2025. A euro now buys 3.4% fewer dollars, so a fixed dollar invoice costs about 3.5% more in euros (1.1545 ÷ 1.115 − 1). Both are market quotes taken at different times of day, not ECB reference rates.
Who carries this depends on the currency of the invoice. If you pay in dollars, the conversion cost is yours. A supplier quoting in euros is only exposed if it buys in dollars, for example fabric, and sells to you in euros.
For buyers: on euro quotes, ask for the exchange rate built into the current price, the share of cost bought in dollars, any hedging, and any currency clause already in the contract. Count the currency effect once.
Factory wages: rises set for January 2027
Vietnam's regional monthly minimum wages are VND 5.31m, 4.73m, 4.14m and 3.70m (Regions I–IV) since 1 January 2026, an average rise of 7.2%. From 1 January 2027 they go to VND 5.70m, 5.08m, 4.45m and 4.04m, an average rise of 7.8% (Decree 399/2026/ND-CP, signed 2 November 2026). Cambodia's minimum for garment, textile, footwear and travel-goods workers goes from $210 to $212 a month in 2027.
Bangladesh's garment minimum wage is 12,500 taka (about $102) a month, set in December 2023, and inflation was 8.34% in September. After protests disrupted 529 factories, the government formed a six-member wage board on 1 November (Al Jazeera). Workers are asking for 30,000 taka, and a workers' representative on the board wants new rates from January 2027 salaries.
A minimum-wage rise only raises a factory's cost for workers paid near the minimum, plus the related employer contributions.
For buyers: ask for the factory's actual wage change, the number of workers affected, employer contributions, labour minutes per garment and, for Vietnam, the region. Deduct any increase already in current pricing. For Bangladesh, wait for the wage board's decision.
EU rules ahead
EU countries must set up producer-pays (EPR) schemes for textile waste by 17 April 2028, covering importers and online sellers (Directive (EU) 2025/1892). The Forced Labour Regulation applies from 14 December 2027. Deadlines in 2027 and 2028 are no reason for a surcharge today. Some member states already run national textile schemes, and their fees can be a real cost in the countries where you sell. Pay only itemised fees for those countries.
Supplier claims and the evidence to ask for
| Supplier claim | What the market shows | Before any adjustment, the supplier must show |
|---|---|---|
| "Cotton costs more" | Little change over the month to 6 Nov; above a year ago | Purchase dates and prices; cotton share of cost; cotton price already in the agreed price |
| "Polyester costs more" | Feedstock down sharply in the week to 4 Nov; fibre price unconfirmed | Fibre or yarn price, source and purchase date |
| "Freight costs more" | Spot rates 84–97% above a year ago; flat to lower now | Extra freight cost per garment against the current allowance; delivery terms; contract or spot rate |
| "The euro is weaker" | A dollar invoice costs about 3.5% more in euros | Own currency exposure: baseline rate, share of cost in dollars, hedging, existing clauses |
| "Wages are rising" | Vietnam and Cambodia 2027 minimums set; Bangladesh under review | Factory wage change, workers affected, contributions, labour minutes; increases already priced in |
| "EPR or compliance costs" | EU-wide schemes due by April 2028; some national schemes now | Itemised fees for the countries where you sell |
How to size a claim
Before looking at any number, check what is already covered: the allowance for each cost in the agreed price, earlier adjustments for the same cost, index or currency clauses in the contract, stock and materials bought at earlier prices, and fixed-price contracts or hedges. A benchmark being higher than a year ago is not enough on its own.
Then apply the price change only to the part of the cost that is exposed to it:
contribution to unit-cost change = cost share × exposed share × change in the relevant input price
For example, with illustrative figures: a garment costs €10.00 and freight is 4% of that (€0.40). Half the freight is on fixed contract rates, so the exposed share is 50%. The relevant freight rate is 10% above the allowance in the price. 4% × 50% × 10% = 0.2% of unit cost, or €0.02 per garment. That is the change in the supplier's estimated cost; the purchase price also depends on its other costs, margin and contract terms. Our diesel surcharge guide uses the same approach.
If you agree an index clause, name the benchmark for each input (for example ICE cotton or Drewry Shanghai–Rotterdam), agree a base date and baseline cost share, apply the same rule to rises and falls, fix review dates such as each season, and set one exchange-rate rule.
What to watch
- Watch the Bangladesh wage board's decision and any further disruption. Ask suppliers there for factory-level labour costs and check your delivery buffers.
- Assess the January 2027 wage rises in Vietnam (by region) and Cambodia factory by factory, net of increases already priced in.
- Review freight monthly while ships return to Suez and European ports risk congestion, and tie any surcharge to actual shipments. Hormuz is still a risk.
- Oil could rebound, depending on the Middle East talks; watch for Brent back above $100. Index polyester to a named fibre benchmark that works both ways.
- The ECB decides on rates in December. Agree one exchange-rate rule with each supplier and consider hedging dollar purchases.
- National EPR laws are due by June 2027 and the Forced Labour Regulation applies from December 2027. Start traceability checks now.
Data gaps: there is no current price for polyester fibre, yarn or viscose. The year-on-year euro change uses market quotes taken at different times of day; ECB reference rates should replace them before use in a negotiation. The Trading Economics cotton series does not publish its rollover method.
Sources: USDA AMS Weekly Cotton Market Review (6 Nov 2026); Trading Economics cotton series (8 Nov 2026); OPIS (5 Nov 2026, paraxylene and Brent futures); World Bank Pink Sheet (2 Oct 2026); ChemAnalyst (24 Sep 2026); Drewry World Container Index (5 Nov 2026), year-ago rates via Cyprus Shipping News (12 Nov 2025); XTB (6 Nov 2026) and FXStreet (6 Nov 2025) for EUR/USD; Vietnam Briefing and Vietnam News Agency (Decrees 293/2025/ND-CP and 399/2026/ND-CP); The Star and CambojaNews (Cambodia wages); Al Jazeera (1 and 3 Nov 2026, Bangladesh); VdA Legal Partners (Directive (EU) 2025/1892); European Commission (Regulation (EU) 2024/3015). Links between prices and oil, tariffs or policy are the named sources' interpretations.