Summary
Oil has spiked again rather than normalised. North Sea Dated averaged $91.00 per barrel in August and surged to $113.48 on 9 September, with ICE Brent futures around $105, according to the IEA's September Oil Market Report. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely constrained, and on 26 September the US rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen it.
For retail buyers, diesel is where the cost hits hardest. Energy comes next, but how much depends on each supplier's contracts and hedging. Several other "oil is up" claims do not hold: Asia–Europe container rates are falling, and euro-area food inflation was 1.1% in August.
Crude oil and the Strait of Hormuz
The IEA puts 2026 world oil supply at 100.7 million barrels a day, down 5.7 million year on year, and global observed inventories have fallen by 507 million barrels since the start of the war. Total Gulf oil exports were around 13 million barrels a day in August, nearly half their pre-war level, and crude losses have narrowed to just below 45%. Refined products are tighter than crude: Gulf diesel/gasoil exports averaged 390,000 barrels a day in August, just over a quarter of pre-war levels.
External forecasts expect lower prices next year. The EIA expects Brent to average around $90 in the second half of 2026 and $74 in 2027. ECB staff assume Brent at $78.0 for 2027 (assumptions with a 19 August cut-off, before the September spike).
For buyers: suppliers pricing 12-month contracts off today's spot price are building in a peak. Prefer terms of three months or less, or indexed pricing with caps, floors and re-openers.
Diesel and road freight
The average EU diesel pump price reached a record €2.23 per litre, according to an AFP analysis of the European Commission's Weekly Oil Bulletin published on 24 September. Denmark and Finland are highest at €2.56, followed by Germany at €2.46. According to the IRU, fuel support measures in Spain, Austria, Greece, Romania and Sweden were due to expire on 30 September.
The latest European road freight benchmark (Ti, Upply and IRU, Q2 2026) shows the contract index at 148.0 points, up 15.2 points year on year, with increases "driven primarily by cost rather than demand". That is history, not a current surcharge.
For buyers: hauliers' fuel claims are valid in principle, but only as an indexed, reversible surcharge on the fuel share of the freight cost. Our diesel surcharge guide shows the calculation.
Ocean freight
Not every freight cost is rising. On 24 September the Drewry World Container Index put Shanghai–Rotterdam at $3,485 per 40ft container, down 4% on the week, and Shanghai–Genoa at $3,835, down 5%.
For buyers: challenge ocean surcharges unless they are lane-specific, state contract or spot basis, and come with the freight invoice.
Gas and electricity
The front-month TTF gas contract (October) reached €82.52 per MWh on 14 September, and EU gas storage was 68.5% full on 15 September, against a five-year seasonal average of around 84%. Euro-area energy inflation rose to 14.3% in August from 10.3% in July.
Some oil-indexed LNG contracts reprice five to six months after oil, which would be around the first quarter of 2027; lags and formulas differ by contract. Suppliers buying on TTF, on fixed-price contracts or with hedges have materially different costs.
For buyers: increases may be valid in direction for energy-intensive categories such as bakery, frozen, dairy processing, glass, paper and aluminium cans, depending on each supplier's actual exposure, contracts and hedging. Pass through only the share that is demonstrably unhedged, and ask for hedge coverage, contract dates and pricing basis.
Packaging
Gulf refined-product and LPG exports remain nearly 60% below February levels (IEA), which tightens supply of the feedstocks behind plastics and packaging resins. Prices have not spiked so far: myCEPPI puts Central and Eastern European LDPE film at €1,266 per tonne, HDPE film at €1,220 and PP at €1,150 (week 36).
A €20 per tonne resin increase adds about €0.0002 to a pack that uses 10 g of plastic, before conversion, waste, energy and margin.
For buyers: ask for every packaging claim to be converted into cost per unit and linked to a published index. Check allocation risk for key formats.
Demand, inflation and the euro
Euro-area inflation was 3.2% in August (the flash estimate had been 3.3%), with food, alcohol and tobacco at 1.1%. Retail volumes fell 0.6% in July, with non-food down 1.4%, and euro-area consumer confidence slipped to -16.5 in September (flash). The ECB raised its key rates by 25 basis points on 10 September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%.
The ECB reference rate fell to 1.1378 dollars per euro on 28 September, from 1.1699 on 21 August. That raises the euro cost of dollar-priced oil and freight by about 2.8% over the period, all else equal.
For buyers: weak non-food demand gives you leverage on promotions and volume. Use the food inflation figure to challenge blanket increases, not as proof that any one supplier's costs are stable.
What buyers should do now
- Reject general "oil is up" increases without an open-book cost bridge by component.
- Accept diesel surcharges only on a published index, with a monthly reset and an automatic downward adjustment.
- Resist 12-month fixed increases set at the peak.
- Ask suppliers about winter energy hedges and resin allocation, and agree symmetric index clauses now.
Sources: IEA Oil Market Report (11 Sep 2026); EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (9 Sep); ECB monetary policy decision (10 Sep) and staff projections (Sep 2026); ECB euro reference rates; Eurostat HICP (17 Sep) and retail trade (4 Sep); European Commission flash consumer confidence (Sep); European Commission Weekly Oil Bulletin via AFP (24 Sep); IRU; Ti/Upply/IRU European Road Freight Rate Benchmark Q2 2026; Drewry World Container Index (24 Sep); ICE Endex TTF; GIE AGSI+ gas storage; myCEPPI polymer prices (week 36). Figures as of 28 September 2026. External forecasts and assumptions are those of the named institutions, not RedWildPig forecasts.